What is the Euribor and why is its rise to 2.268% relevant for the Spanish economy?
The Euribor is the index that reflects the average interest rate at which European banks lend money in the short term.
The increase to 2.268% especially impacts variable mortgages, increasing the monthly payments of millions of Spaniards.
Furthermore, it is a key indicator to understand the financial conditions and monetary policies in Europe.
Definition and calculation of the Euribor
The Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) measures the average rate without guarantees at which European banks lend money in the short term.
It is calculated daily by discarding extreme values and averaging the rates reported by representative banks.
Importance of the Euribor for mortgages in Spain
The 12-month Euribor is the main index to review variable mortgages in Spain, directly affecting installments.
Its evolution can significantly increase or reduce the financial burden of households with mortgage loans.
General economic impact of the rise in the Euribor
The increase makes credit more expensive, slows down consumption and investment, and affects both families and companies.
It is linked to the ECB's policy to control inflation and economic activity in the eurozone.
How will the increase in the Euribor affect mortgages and credits in Spain?
The increase in the Euribor makes variable mortgages more expensive, raising monthly payments for millions of mortgage holders in Spain.
In 2025, the Euribor closed close to 2.2%, which has led to gradual increases in many semi-annual and annual reviews.
This situation generates financial uncertainty and forces households to adjust their budgets to respond to the increase in credit costs.
Increase in variable mortgage payments
The rise in the Euribor increases the cost of installments on mortgages with variable interest, directly affecting the family economy.
Although some annual mortgages have lower installments than the previous year, most have seen increases due to the rebound in the index.
Forecasts and evolution of the Euribor
Experts agree that the Euribor will remain stable around a range of 2.1% to 2.3% towards the end of 2025 and 2026.
This stability would reflect a moderation in monetary policy and relative control of inflation in the euro zone.
Stabilization around 2.1-2.3% by the end of 2025 and 2026
Forecasts from entities such as Funcas, CaixaBank and Bankinter anticipate that the Euribor will close 2025 close to 2.1 %-2.25 %.
It is expected that throughout 2026 the index will remain at these levels, without major upward fluctuations, according to current analyses.
Consequences for debt capacity and the real estate market
The high Euribor reduces debt capacity by making mortgage payments more expensive, making it difficult to access new loans.
This situation moderates the demand for housing and can stabilize or slow down price growth in the real estate market.
Why does the hospitality sector foresee significant growth by 2025 despite the geopolitical environment and economic uncertainty?
The Spanish hospitality sector shows resilience in the face of uncertainty, driven by rigorous financial management and digitalization.
Gastronomic tourism and adaptation to sustainable and personalized preferences strengthen demand and competitiveness.
Sectoral alliances and professionalization allow us to overcome challenges and maintain stable economic growth.
Resilience factors: tourism, adaptation and professionalization
Gastronomic tourism continues to be key, supported by personalized local experiences and sustainable offerings to attract customers.
Professionalization and continuous training are essential to raise the quality of service and adapt to demanding consumers.
Growth in chains, franchises and organized restaurants
In 2025, organized hospitality grew by 6.2%, driven by chains and franchises that increased their presence and diversified services.
The expansion ranges from fast food to luxury hotels, prioritizing efficiency and customer experience.
Boost in employment and post-pandemic adjustments
Employment in hospitality is growing, with more than 1.84 million workers and a sustained increase in contracts, especially permanent ones.
Despite salary challenges, digital profiles are incorporated and working conditions are adjusted to improve sectoral stability.
What signs do financial markets show for the end of 2025 and how does polarization influence the decisions of the US Federal Reserve?
Signs of weakness in global markets include alternation between rises and falls with high volatility, generating uncertainty among investors.
High leverage in US broker accounts increases risk in risky assets, while symptoms of overvaluation persist in key indices.
The economic slowdown in Asia and global political tensions add pressure, limiting sustained growth and increasing financial caution.
Signs of weakness and volatility in global markets
Markets show sharp movements due to mixed earnings results and fears about global economic growth.
Bubble indicators, a drop in gold prices and problems in US banking warn of potential risks in the coming months.
Influence of political polarization in the US and challenges for the Fed
The strong political polarization in the US causes a climate of instability that challenges the independence and decisions of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed must balance economic policies without deepening social divisions, while responding to political pressures and managing macroeconomic uncertainty.
What repercussions can this combination of factors (high Euribor, hospitality growth, stable markets) have for the Spanish economy in the short and medium term?
A high Euribor makes credit more expensive and limits mortgage consumption, although its recent stabilization relieves financial pressure.
Hospitality growth boosts employment and spending, strengthening domestic demand and contributing to Spanish GDP.
Stable markets and inflation control facilitate investment and confidence, supporting moderate and sustainable economic growth.
